NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season
“New Orleans: Then and now photos, 16 years after Katrina”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/08/28/hurricane-katrina-orleans-rebuilt-photos/
Recommended Books
"Katrina: After the Flood" - Gary Rivlin
(August 2016)
"Words Whispered in Water: Why the Levees Broke in Hurricane Katrina" - Sandy Rosenthal August 2020
Hurricane safety, hazards, climatology, tracks, center, forecast, and education
National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov)
NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
"New hurricane research supports advances to NOAA’s 2022 forecasts"
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/aoml-hurricane-research-2022/
According to Jason Dunion, the 2022 NOAA Hurricane Field Program director, “instead of waiting for storms to come to us, this year we’ll go to them.”
National Hurricane Center
Experimental Peak Storm Surge Forecast
Winter Storm Safety
NOAA Office of Costal Management
"Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper"
https://www.coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/flood-exposure.html
NOAA Weather Prediction Center
CAHF.org
PowerPoint Presentation (cahf.org)
CDC
"Creating and Storing an Emergency Water Supply"
CDC
"Prepare Your Health"
https://www.cdc.gov/prepyourhealth/index.htm
CDC
"Extreme Cold: A Prevention Guide to Promote Your Personal Health and Safety"
https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/guide.html
CDC
Natural Disasters and Severe Weather
https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/index.html
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